Breakdown of chances for probe team actions, per morale and type of mission

[Alpha Centauri Bear]

Let me summarize it. Here is the text from PROBE effect description.

-2, -50% cost of enemy probe team actions; enemy success rate increased
-1, -25% cost of enemy probe team actions; enemy success rate increased
0, Normal security measures
1, +1 probe team morale; +50% cost of enemy probe team actions
2, +2 probe team morale; Doubles cost of enemy probe team actions!
3, +3 probe team morale; Bases and units cannot be subverted by standard Probe Teams!!

Based on the information in this post it looks like enemy success rate increased is false. Success rate does not directly depend on own or enemy PROBE rating. It directly depends only on probe team morale which, in turn, depends on own positive PROBE rating and some other things.

[Kirov]

I'm quite sure I was thorough in testing that, however at the moment I have no recollection of the relevant tests. But yeah, my gameplay memories don't suggest that the enemies of Zak have it easier. Just cheaper.

[Alpha Centauri Bear]

Yep. Cheaper only for paying options like subversion. Other actions are unaffected.
It would be nice if anyone modded this so success rate depends on difference between your PROBE and enemy's. I.e. your rating increases it (maybe just slightly) and enemy rating decreases it.
Then PROBE would be indeed some important statistics!

[magic9mushroom]

The effective distance is halved by a children's creche, halved by a punishment sphere, halved by nerve stapling, and tripled by a genejack factory.

The Crèche sounds okay to me, but the Genejack Factory does not.

With +0 PROBE and 10 credit balance for target and no previous probe actions:

Mind-controlling an empty size-1 base at 2 squares from HQ costs 201 credits normally, 242 with Crèche, 114 with Genejack Factory, 151 with both.
Mind-controlling an empty size-1 base at 12 squares from HQ costs 75 credits normally, 121 with Crèche, 33 with Genejack Factory,  57 with both.

It's not a tripling of the distance - indeed, it can't be any multiplier of the distance, because no number x would fit both 2x = ~6.6 and 12x = ~32. It also can't be a straight multiplier of the cost, because 114/201 and 33/75 are completely different.

Not sure what's going on here, but I wanted to flag it.

[magic9mushroom]

Figured it out. GJF doubles distance from HQ, but then also multiplies overall mind-control cost by 3/4 (or something mathematically equivalent; the rounding's different so I suspect it's either "subtract 1/4 of cost" or "multiply (distance + 4) by 4/3 prior to doing the division").