US Presidential Contenders

[E_T]

We have a top-tier congressional race here, so the Republican incumbent's signs are everywhere, but it's hard to find anything for any of the presidential candidates or anyone else.  They exist - there are certainly more Clinton bumper stickers as you approach Washington, D.C. - but even those are rare.  At this point, there are easily more yard signs for or against a local tax referendum measure in my county than for all of the presidential candidates combined.

I've noticed that the enthusiasm gap in this election - which already started out generational - has become increasingly generational as things go on.  The people volunteering for anything on either side are overwhelmingly in their 50's, 60's, or 70's (mostly baby boomers, some older folk).  Even otherwise active people on both sides seem to just be sitting this out.  They'll vote (not necessarily for their own party's nominee), but that's it.

I actually agree with the take I saw made in a piece from the Federalist today: contrary to what a lot of people have been trying to sell, this could really be the least important presidential election of our lifetimes.  No matter who wins, they will be loathed by the majority of the country, have no mandate aside from "they weren't the other one", likely facing a hostile congress keeping them from doing anything, and probably won't get re-elected in 2020.

[Unorthodox]

Had about 70 kids.  Not a single political mask this year - though princess costumes were the in thing, along with Mario....

My sample size is significantly larger than yours   1000ish

[E_T]

Had about 70 kids.  Not a single political mask this year - though princess costumes were the in thing, along with Mario....

My sample size is significantly larger than yours   1000ish

I wonder why...  ;rolleyes

[Buster's Uncle]

[Rusty Edge]

In one sense, I have been less politically active since I voted early.  Real Life has been demanding as well.

What I find interesting is that Nate Silver has the race at roughly 65/35 in favor of Clinton, with an average Electoral College victory of 290... BUT in his state by state breakdown, Clinton is basically winning by one state. [Sleezebag] is winning by less than half a % of popular vote in states such as NC, FL, and NV. SO, should [Sleezebag] happen to flip a blue state such as CO, or NH, he would win. PA is a stretch in so short a time, and he hasn't prioritized it.  Admittedly, Clinton's lead in PA , while consistent,  tends to be similar to the margin of error, and the rural conservative voters tend to refuse to answer pollster's questions as being none of their business. So it could be closer than it appears.  Likewise, if Gary could grab NM, he could deny them both. It's that close. Nate says he wishes he had a recent poll from NM.

Speaking of my former home state of PA- The Philadelphia transit workers are on strike. That means it takes a lot longer to go to places, and might be hard to get to and from work and vote in the same day.  Philadelphia is the Democratic stronghold which keeps the state blue in presidential elections, and purple otherwise. Some of the precincts were 100% Obama. It would be ironic if the striking unionized workers suppressed Democrat vote enough to elect [Sleezebag], or save the Senate seat for the Republicans.

McMullin is more likely to take Utah than Gary is New Mexico. ( Presuming PA goes to Hillary), taking Utah would likely deny [Sleezebag], Taking New Mexico would likely deny both Hillary and [Sleezebag],  Of course if both happened, McMullen would be the 3rd candidate in the 12th Amendment scenario, and Gary would be out because Utah has one more Electoral College vote than New Mexico. I would consider McMullin the heavy favorite in The House, because his last job was advisor to the GOP  House caucus. 

So it  should be interesting watching Tuesday night.  At the moment I don't dare to hope that neither Clinton nor [Sleezebag] will be the next president, but I am starting to look forward to all of this ending and either [Sleezebag] or Clinton going away. However.... Nate puts the chances of at least one recount in a swing state at 9.1%

"It ain't over till it's over."

[E_T]

I expect [Sleezebag] to raise a stink

[Rusty Edge]

Probably, if it's this close.

[Rusty Edge]

Philadelphia transit strike resolved.
Nate moved Nevada into the blue zone by 0.5% of popular vote. Both Florida and North Carolina are red by 0.1% of popular vote. Sounds like a recount to me, but with the FBI cloud lifted, the popular vote nationally might reset to the default +4 to +5% in Clinton's favor, and with it improved prospects of a Senate flip.

[Unorthodox]

Every commercial during the Raiders game last night had 2-3 T rump ads here in Utah. 

1 Hillary about every other break. 


[Sleezebag] ads are all now outdated due to the clearing of the FBI case (again), but I doubt that matters to anyone.  He's saying it louder and more often, people will still believe she's under investigation. 

[Rusty Edge]

Every commercial during the Raiders game last night had 2-3 T rump ads here in Utah. 

1 Hillary about every other break. 


T rump ads are all now outdated due to the clearing of the FBI case (again), but I doubt that matters to anyone.  He's saying it louder and more often, people will still believe she's under investigation.

Evan McMullin is  polling mid to upper 20s there. What's the anecdotal evidence of his support? Also, is it unusual for a Morman man in his 40s to still be single?

[Unorthodox]

Evan McMullin is  polling mid to upper 20s there. What's the anecdotal evidence of his support?

I don't think he's gotten any big name supporters that I'm aware of.  The only time he's been in the local news was when T rump suggested he may be gay. 

That said, BEARING IN MIND I SIMPLY DO NOT ENGAGE IN POLITICAL DISCOURSE AS A GENERAL RULE.  Much like here, I don't tend to advocate one side or the other, and tend to play neutral observer willing to defend either side from outright lies.  (just there's a lot more of that from one direction this time)  I know of several LDS families that support him, and only know of them due to hEt being one who DOES engage in such discourse. 

I get the feeling that LDS voters are torn with a conservative ticket that is morally against their beliefs, the need to stop Hillary because she's the devil, and a McMullen candidate that is basically throwing your vote away.   


As for being single:  I don't have numbers, but would guess at 90% lds Males being married by 40.  Not unheard of, but not totally normal. 

THAT SAID:  There's not a STIGMA attached to being single in the LEAST.  If he had kids off a couple women, maybe.  IF HE IS GAY AND LDS, he appears to be doing as the religion teaches and abstaining.  There's not exactly the stigma to being GAY, per se, either.  It's acting on those impulses.  You could make the argument he would become quite popular amongst LDS voters if that were the case.  So the whole "look at him, he's not married, must be gay" bashing is comical, really. 

Or maybe I put too much faith in the members on the gay point.  Officially there wouldn't be anything wrong with it unless they started bringing out a line of lovers.  Individuals, however, might find the mere inference enough to sway a vote.

[Rusty Edge]

Just curious . I don't think he's gay.

Here, Republicans seem to be "Coming home" to [Sleezebag], and finally putting up signs and other forms of public support. Weaker than Romney, but on the rise. I haven't been in the local Democrat strongholds yet this month to gauge that support..

[Unorthodox]

I haven't seen a presidential sign, yet.  I see more Bernie stuff than anything on cars. 

[E_T]

In one sense, I have been less politically active since I voted early.  Real Life has been demanding as well.

What I find interesting is that Nate Silver has the race at roughly 65/35 in favor of Clinton, with an average Electoral College victory of 290... BUT in his state by state breakdown, Clinton is basically winning by one state. T rump is winning by less than half a % of popular vote in states such as NC, FL, and NV. SO, should T rump happen to flip a blue state such as CO, or NH, he would win. PA is a stretch in so short a time, and he hasn't prioritized it.  Admittedly, Clinton's lead in PA , while consistent,  tends to be similar to the margin of error, and the rural conservative voters tend to refuse to answer pollster's questions as being none of their business. So it could be closer than it appears.  Likewise, if Gary could grab NM, he could deny them both. It's that close. Nate says he wishes he had a recent poll from NM.

Speaking of my former home state of PA- The Philadelphia transit workers are on strike. That means it takes a lot longer to go to places, and might be hard to get to and from work and vote in the same day.  Philadelphia is the Democratic stronghold which keeps the state blue in presidential elections, and purple otherwise. Some of the precincts were 100% Obama. It would be ironic if the striking unionized workers suppressed Democrat vote enough to elect T rump, or save the Senate seat for the Republicans.

McMullin is more likely to take Utah than Gary is New Mexico. ( Presuming PA goes to Hillary), taking Utah would likely deny T rump, Taking New Mexico would likely deny both Hillary and T rump,  Of course if both happened, McMullen would be the 3rd candidate in the 12th Amendment scenario, and Gary would be out because Utah has one more Electoral College vote than New Mexico. I would consider McMullin the heavy favorite in The House, because his last job was advisor to the GOP  House caucus. 

So it  should be interesting watching Tuesday night.  At the moment I don't dare to hope that neither Clinton nor T rump will be the next president, but I am starting to look forward to all of this ending and either T rump or Clinton going away. However.... Nate puts the chances of at least one recount in a swing state at 9.1%

"It ain't over till it's over."

Don't forget that Maine and Nebraska both have proportional Electoral ballots, so could bring Gary up more than McMullen...

[E_T]

I was out today at VA and in rush hour traffic back, did not see a single bumper sticker.