Ebola News 1/14

[Buster's Uncle]

Liberia's Ebola Epidemic Could End by Summer, Study Predicts
LiveScience.com
By Rachael Rettner  6 hours ago



The Ebola outbreak in Liberia could be largely brought to an end by June — if the country stays on track with getting a high percentage of the people who are ill to hospitals, a new study predicts.

Researchers found that if 85 percent of people with Ebola in Liberia are hospitalized, transmission of the disease could be nearly stopped between March and June of this year.

However, if Liberia's hospitalization rate remains where it was last summer, at around 70 percent, then transmission of the disease would "most certainly continue into the second half of 2015," the researchers said. The actual hospitalization rate in Liberia right now is not known, but it is likely close to 85 percent, said study researcher John Drake, an associate professor at the University of Georgia.

"The people and government of Liberia, foreign governments, and non-governmental organizations have done a monumental job in reducing transmission [of Ebola]. What is required now is maintaining these gains," Drake told Live Science. [The 9 Deadliest Viruses on Earth]

The researchers used information from past Ebola outbreaks to estimate the level of Ebola transmission that typically occurs in hospitals, in the community and at funerals. Then, the researchers fine-tuned their model based on data gathered last summer, during the current Ebola outbreak. That information included the number of new cases, and changes in public health efforts, like the addition of 300 new hospital beds in the region last August.

The study also took into account the situations in which Ebola is known to spread (in the hospital, during nursing care or at burials), the locations where people are treated (in the hospital or at home), and the time it took for the country to build up hospital capacity and adopt safe burial practices.

In other words, the model "captures all the things we think to be most important [for transmission], and ignores the rest," Drake said.

However, the researchers noted, they were not able to take into account some factors that may have small effects on Ebola transmission. For example, the model assumed the number of health care workers was proportional to how many people were sick, but in reality, the number of workers may vary if people become exhausted and can't work anymore, or are moved around, the researchers said.

The study is published today (Jan. 13) in the journal PLOS Biology.       

As of Jan. 10, there have been more than 21,000 cases of Ebola during the current outbreak, and more than 8,000 people have died of the disease, in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


http://news.yahoo.com/liberias-ebola-epidemic-could-end-summer-study-predicts-150627427.html

[Buster's Uncle]

U.S. soldier monitoring himself for Ebola dies near Texas base
Reuters  January 13, 2015 6:56 PM



DALLAS (Reuters) - A U.S. Army soldier who just returned from West Africa and was self-monitoring for Ebola symptoms was found dead on Tuesday near the Texas base where he was posted, Fort Hood officials said.

Army officials said initial screening results showed the soldier was not infected with Ebola. A more conclusive test was underway "and results will be released when complete to confirm the preliminary findings," they said in a statement.

The unidentified soldier, who recently returned to Fort Hood in central Texas on emergency leave, was monitoring himself twice daily and reporting his status to medical officials, they said.

He was found dead at his off-post residence in the town of Killeen.

"We are not saying Ebola at all," Killeen police spokeswoman Carol Smith said. "It's just that because of the circumstances from West Africa, we are erring on the side of caution."

A brigade from Fort Hood has been deployed in Liberia since October in support of "Operation United Assistance," a program to help control the Ebola outbreak in the West African country.

(Reporting by Lisa Maria Garza in Dallas and Jim Forsyth in San Antonio; Editing by Jon Herskovitz, Alan Crosby and Eric Beech)


http://news.yahoo.com/u-soldier-just-returned-west-africa-dies-near-202520685.html

[Buster's Uncle]

Sierra Leone president predicts 0 Ebola cases by March end
Associated Press
By CLARENCE ROY-MACAULAY  9 hours ago



In this file photo taken on Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014, A child, center, stands underneath a signboard as a family home is placed under quarantine due to the Ebola virus in Port Loko, Sierra Leone. Evan as his country registered 19 new Ebola cases over a 24-hour period, Sierra Leone’s president is predicting there will be zero new confirmed cases by the end of March, 2015. President Ernest Bai Koroma also predicted that his West African country _ one of three hardest hit by the outbreak _ would be Ebola-free by World Health Organization standards by May, 2015. (AP Photo/Michael Duff, File)



FREETOWN, Sierra Leone (AP) — Even as his country registered 19 new Ebola cases over a 24-hour period, Sierra Leone's president is predicting there will be zero new confirmed cases by the end of March.

President Ernest Bai Koroma also predicted that his West African country — one of three hardest hit by the outbreak — would be Ebola-free by World Health Organization standards by May. Koroma made this pronouncement during town hall meetings this week in the northern Districts of Port Loko, Tonkolili, and Bombali.

Sierra Leone's southern Pujehun district has registered zero cases for more than 42 days, according to government statistics. By WHO standards, a country cannot be declared Ebola-free until it has registered no cases for 42 consecutive days.

Among the 19 new cases the government reported countrywide, at least eight were in and around the capital of Freetown. Sierra Leone has had about 900 cases in the past 21 days, according to WHO statistics, which also say nearly 3,000 people have died there since the emergence of Ebola.

Ebola has claimed over 8,000 lives, mostly in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. One of the biggest challenges to combatting the virus is finding all contacts of confirmed cases and tracing them, especially when little is known about where the virus is spreading. Experts have said it is worrying that some regions still aren't reporting any suspected cases.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon previously said the epidemic could be over by mid-2015 but WHO is now declining to set a specific timeline after having been burned on previous predictions. Last October, WHO expected that all Ebola patients and safely bury all victims by Jan. 1, but neither goal was met.

"WHO hopes Ebola ends as soon as possible in all three affected countries of Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea," said WHO spokeswoman Winnie Romeril. "WHO is not predicting how soon Ebola will end as it would take every community to use the facilities and resources available to them."

She said getting to zero cases will take time and effort that includes immediate treatment of patients and dignified, safe burials of the dead.


http://news.yahoo.com/sierra-leone-president-predicts-0-ebola-cases-march-115659583.html

[Buster's Uncle]

Mob kills men in Guinea suspected of spreading Ebola
AFP  11 hours ago



Guinea's health workers wearing protective suit pose at an Ebola Donka treatment centre in Conakry on December 8, 2014 (AFP Photo/Cellou Binani)



Conakry (AFP) - Two men were killed and their bodies burned by an angry mob in Guinea convinced that the victims infected a local with Ebola, in the latest violence spurred by the deadly disease, police said Wednesday.

Residents of the western village of Dar-es-Salaam attacked a group of three police officers and their driver who stopped there Saturday while on their way to a funeral.

During their visit, one in the group gave a sedative to a local healer who was suffering from an undescribed illness. After the healer died his wife called for help from locals, who responded violently, Guinea police Commissioner Boubacar Kasse told AFP.

The villagers grabbed machetes and clubs and beat the victims to death before setting their bodies and vehicle on fire, Kasse said.

He added that at least one local shouted: "You came from Conakry (Guinea's capital) to spread Ebola to our village."

The other police officers survived the attack and were recovering in hospital.

Violent reactions to Ebola are frequent in Guinea, especially in the south, where tensions are high between local groups and the central government.

The most violent incident came in September 2014 in the southwestern village of Womey when eight members of an Ebola prevention campaign were killed by locals. During the violence residents screamed the disease was a "white conspiracy."


http://news.yahoo.com/mob-kills-men-guinea-suspected-spreading-ebola-155056184.html

[Buster's Uncle]

Ebola health workers face life or death decision on pregnant women: experts
Reuters
By Kieran Guilbert  January 13, 2015 7:05 PM



A pregnant woman suspected of contracting Ebola is lifted by stretcher into an ambulance in Freetown, Sierra Leone September 19, 2014 in a handout photo provided by UNICEF. REUTERS/Bindra/UNICEF/handout via Reuters



LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Health workers treating women with pregnancy-related problems in Ebola-hit countries have to make life or death decisions for their patients and themselves, experts said on Wednesday.

Health workers have very little time to decide whether a pregnant women with complications is free of Ebola and should have the necessary intervention, or may have Ebola and should have minimal procedures, experts said in BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Dr Benjamin Black, a specialist in obstetrics and gynecology, said poor infrastructure and limited access to laboratory services meant that test results for suspected Ebola patients could take more than 24 hours to arrive, in which time a woman and her fetus may die.

Health workers dealing with childbirth are at particular risk of infection because they are frequently exposed to large quantities of bodily fluids, including blood, urine and faeces.

Medecins Sans Frontières (MSF), which opened in Sierra Leone on Saturday the first care center for pregnant women in the current Ebola epidemic, said the survival rate from the virus for expectant mothers was virtually zero. (id:USKBN0KJ0PH)

"The overlap in diagnostic criteria, but with contradictory treatment strategies, creates an ethical conundrum for the obstetrician in an Ebola epidemic," Black wrote in a commentary.

"The decision on whether to isolate a woman or not is potentially a decision between life and death, for both the patient and the health worker."

Due to the stigma, rumors and fear surrounding Ebola, pregnant women often wait until they are in a critical state before seeking treatment, further challenging the system of prioritizing patients, Black said.

While the rate of transmission has slowed in Guinea and Liberia and signs indicate it is starting to ebb in Sierra Leone, the journal said that once-functioning health structures were now deserted by patients and staff, as many have died from Ebola while others fear working and have gone on strike.

In a separate commentary published in the journal, three Public Health England (PHE) authors said data on pregnancy outcomes in the current epidemic was relatively scarce.

Limited evidence suggested that maternal mortality rates are high among Ebola virus-infected pregnant women, who are at increased risk of spontaneous abortion, pregnancy-related hemorrhage, stillbirth and death, they said.

"While high neonatal mortality rates have been previously reported, it hasn't always been known whether these deaths were caused by Ebola or the many other causes of high infant mortality," the PHE commentary said.

More than 21,000 people have been infected with the virus in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia since the current outbreak in West Africa began a year ago and at least 8,300 people have died, according to World Health Organization figures. (id:AFKBN0KL284)

(Reporting By Kieran Guilbert; Editing by Tim Pearce)


http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-health-workers-face-life-death-decision-pregnant-000537724.html