Will an asteroid hit the moon in 2032? What scientists are saying

[Buster's Uncle]

Will an asteroid hit the moon in 2032? What scientists are saying
Jenna Prestininzi, Detroit Free Press
Detroit Free Press
Tue, September 23, 2025 at 8:57 AM EDT
2 min read





An asteroid that scientist initially feared might pose a risk to Earth may could instead strike the moon in 2032, according to the European Space Agency, but some scientists are suggesting it could be deflected with kinetic or nuclear explosions.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was discovered in 2024, initially was thought to be on a path that could lead to a collision with Earth. NASA later said updated computations showed the chance of an Earth strike was nearly zero.

There is about a 4% chance the asteroid could collide with the moon on Dec. 22, 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency.

In a recently released astrophysics paper at Cornell University that's not yet peer-reviewed, scientists put forward an option to eliminate the risk entirely — deflecting it with nuclear explosions.

Here's what to know about 2024 YR4.


Will the asteroid hit the moon in 2032?

Chances of 2024 YR4 colliding with the moon on Dec. 22, 2032 are very small, NASA said. Any potential hit would not affect the moon's orbit, the agency said.

The European Space Agency reported a 4% chance of the asteroid hitting the moon.


What are scientists proposing?

In an astrophysics paper submitted Sept. 15 at Cornell University by a group of scientists, not yet peer reviewed, the scientists outlined several options to prevent a moon collision if the trajectory is confirmed. The group proposed sending nuclear devices to deflect the asteroid.

"Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical," the proposal said. "However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid."


How big is 2024 YR4?

The asteroid is estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported to the Minor Planet Center on Dec. 27, 2024.

Data suggests the asteroid has an elongated shape, while measurements at visible wavelengths suggest it may be stony in composition, according to the Planetary Society.


How far away is Asteroid 2024 YR4 from Earth now?

Asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit is taking it away from Earth; it’s currently more than 380 million miles away, according to The Sky Live.

Contact Jenna Prestininzi: jprestininzi@freepress.com.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Asteroid could hit moon in 2032. Paper suggests nuclear option to prevent collision